Strategic Future Studies in Isfahan Metropolis: The analysis of challenges through the cause and effect model

Document Type : Original Article

Author

• Hamid saberi

https://doi.org/10.22067/jgusd.2021.46623.0

Abstract

As lack of futuristic vision in the urban development system is considered as one of the main weaknesses of the urban planning system, it is necessary to understand the future in the framework of futuristic models with an urban planning approach to minimize the challenges ahead. This study has been conducted with the aim of researching the future in urban planning and management with the approach of recognizing future challenges in the field of urban planning in Isfahan metropolis and recognizing executive strategies to reduce challenges from the perspective of experts and executives in the field of urban management and Delphi model. In doing so, first, 16 factors were identified as key challenges in the future of the city of Isfahan. Then, the Dimetal method was used to analyze and rank the causes and effects. The results of the analysis show that lack of integrated and efficient urban management, extensions to the city of Isfahan and overcrowding of the municipality are the main and most effective factors in creating future crises in the city of Isfahan, and finally using the experts' opinions and the Delphi model, the most efficient solutions are determined according to the problems raised and ranked using the Shannon entropy model. Using Shannon's entropy model. The results also show that the most important strategies for overcoming the problems of Isfahan metropolis include planning and an integrated view of urban issues and the establishment of integrated urban management and a comprehensive urban plan with new approaches and finally planning for the participation of people (i.e. people for people).

Keywords

• Future studies
• Urban Planning
• Delphi model
• Dimetal Method
• Isfahan

20.1001.1.25383531.1400.8.1.8.2

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