Document Type : Original Article



With the formation of the growth pole theory after the land reform of the 1940s, as well as the continuing population growth and rural migration to cities after the revolution, the concentration of investment, especially in large cities, and the neglect of equitable distribution of power, wealth and facilities in other areas, the urbanization of the country has been intensified. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to identify key and effective variables and the prevailing relationships between variables in the Iranian urban system to achieve social justice in a short time on the horizon of 1410. Therefore, the present research is of applied type in terms of purpose and it is descriptive-exploratory in terms of the research approach. Data were collected using environmental scanning techniques. The particpants included 16 urban planning experts at universities and research centers as members of the panel of experts. The result is to identify 21 primary variables to examine the future status of social justice in Iranian cities. To identify the effective variables and the relationships between the variables, the structural analysis of variables, the widely used method in futures research, was used. The results of the research showed that the variable "citizenship rights education" has very high stability and effectiveness in the system environment. Also, the variables of "creating equal opportunity" and "urban democracy" as two-dimensional variables, "equitable distribution of power and wealth" as a variable of risk and target variables including "equitable allocation of resources and facilities" and "entitlement" have very high impact and effectiveness. These variables have a great potential to become key players in the system to achieve social justice in Iranian cities.