Simulation of land use changes in the metropolitan area of Mashhad during the period 1984 to 2030, utilizing the MOLUSCE model

Articles in Press

Document Type : Scientific-Research

Authors

• sajedeh baghban ¹
• mohammad rahim rahnama ²
• mohammad ajza shokouhi ³
• Hossein Vahidi ⁴

¹ PhD student in Geography and Urban Planning, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran

² Professor of the Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran

³ Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran

⁴ Ferdowsi University of Mashhad

10.22067/jgusd.2025.91247.1480

Abstract

As the second-largest city in Iran, Mashhad is undergoing rapid urban development, leading to significant transformations within its metropolitan area. This study aims to simulate land-use changes in the Mashhad metropolitan region, employing the MOLUSCE model through a descriptive-analytical methodology. Initially, changes in land use from 1984 to 2020 were examined to understand the patterns and trends over this period. Furthermore, projections regarding land use were generated for the year 2030 utilizing the MOLUSCE model within the QGIS software947. In this process, satellite imagery from the Landsat 5 and 8 satellites was classified using the maximum likelihood classification method, allowing us to categorize the land into five distinct classes: built-up areas, green spaces and vegetated lands, barren lands, water bodies, and mountainous (rocky) regions. The findings of the study indicate that over the specified timeframe, barren lands and built-up areas have increased significantly by 15,993.74 hectares (73.92%) and 12,823.76 hectares (59.27%), respectively. Conversely, green spaces have faced a substantial decrease of 15,811.76 hectares (73.08%). Projections for the year 2030 suggest that these trends are likely to persist, particularly with urban development moving towards the north, northwest, and south directions. Additionally, as the distance from the city’s borders increases, there is a noticeable decline in the impact of land-use changes, which results in a greater resistance of land to these transformations. The model’s validity was confirmed by overall Kappa coefficients (0.78), histogram Kappa (0.94), and positional Kappa (0.83), indicating a high level of reliability. The results of this research can serve as a valuable guide for effective land management and the promotion of sustainable development in the metropolitan area of Mashhad.

Keywords

• Mashhad metropolitan area
• land use simulation
• maximum likelihood algorithm
• QGIS software
• MOLUSCE model

Main Subjects

• urban planinnin