In the case of Tabriz Municipality, the expansion of smart city projects has highlighted the need for an effective technological risk management framework. This study seeks to identify, evaluate, and prioritize these risks to support resilient and sustainable urban governance.

The study adopts an applied–descriptive research design with a quantitative approach. Data were collected through a structured questionnaire developed by the researchers, focusing on two main dimensions: the probability of occurrence and the impact level of technological risks. Eight indicators were analyzed—software, authentication, smart networks, big data, transportation equipment, smart cameras, operating systems, and cybersecurity. The statistical population consisted of 73 experts and managers from Tabriz Municipality. Data analysis was conducted using SPSS and AMOS software, employing descriptive statistics, one-sample t-tests, and second-order confirmatory factor analysis to validate the research model.

Findings revealed that the mean values for the probability of technological risks were generally higher than those for their impact, indicating that participants perceived these risks as highly likely but only moderately damaging. Among the indicators, transportation equipment (0.95), smart cameras (0.91), smart networks (0.88), and software (0.87) had the highest probability scores. Regarding impact, smart networks (0.88), transportation equipment (0.85), software (0.76), and smart cameras (0.76) ranked highest. Model fit indices (RMSEA = 0.053 for impact and RMSEA = 0.061 for probability) confirmed the validity and reliability of the analysis. The results demonstrate that Tabriz Municipality faces significant technological risks in its transition toward a smart city. While the probability of such risks is high, mitigation and preparedness levels remain inadequate. This imbalance reflects the municipality’s limited institutional readiness and lack of comprehensive risk management policies. Strengthening technical capacities, enhancing cybersecurity systems, integrating risk management frameworks across departments, and promoting inter-organizational collaboration are essential for improving resilience and ensuring sustainable smart urban governance.