Document Type : Scientific-Research
Authors
1
PhD student in Urban Planning, Qeshm Branch, Islamic Azad University, Qeshm, Iran
2
Associate Professor of Geography, Shiraz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran
3
Assistant Professor of Urban Planning, Safashar Branch, Islamic Azad University, Safashar, Iran
Abstract
Extended Abstract
Introduction
The rapid and unregulated growth of urbanization has precipitated a multitude of complexities. A notable challenge related to the prevalence of inefficient urban structures. The optimal development of such structures demands that planners and policymakers, equipped with a precise comprehension of the city's current state, select the most effective approaches and models for delineating the trajectory of development. A suitable instrument for this purpose is the elaboration of an appropriate regeneration scenario utilizing the novel methodology of scenario planning for the revitalization of these specific urban fabrics. District 6 of Mashhad is facing with multidimensional issues and challenges due to the existence of worn-out urban fabrics and informal settlements. A segment of this district has undergone unregulated and unplanned expansion, resulting in a suboptimal status relative to other areas of the Mashhad. This research tried to address the following questions: What are the most effective drivers influencing the regeneration of the worn-out urban fabric of the District 6 of Mashhad Municipality? And what are the optimal and critical scenarios for the regeneration of the studied area?
Method
This applied study is analytical and exploratory, grounded in novel methods derived from the field of futurology, and implemented through a mixed-methods approach combining quantitative and qualitative models. The initial phase was the examination and review of documentary evidence, articles, and literature pertinent to the topic. The drivers and influential factors influencing urban fabric regeneration were identified and categorized using the Meta-Analysis Method and the MAXQDA software. Then, the Delphi method, employing a non-probability purposive sampling technique, was utilized to solicit the opinions of 20 expert specialists, including academic professionals
active in the sphere of regeneration. Furthermore, the MICMAC software and Scenario Wizard were used for the formulation, interpretation, scenario development, and the extraction of the scenario logic.
Results
Over the past few decades, worn-out urban fabrics and their attendant socio-spatial challenges have emerged as one of the paramount macro-challenges confronting the national urban planning and management system. The principal objective of municipal authorities and urban administrators is, consequently, the amelioration of living conditions and the comprehensive reconstruction and modernization of these specific fabrics. The sustainable urban regeneration approach, given its inherent emphasis on concepts such as civic participation and local governance, is uniquely poised to offer a novel paradigm and model for the contemporary revitalization and restructuring of this region. Furthermore, the empirical results derived from the Scenario Wizard software identified two fundamental uncertainties that serve as the foundational drivers sustaining various sub-drivers: A) Bottom-up planning, stakeholder participation in urban decision-making, and the stabilization of original and local residents' tenure; and B) Regulated regional growth and the enhancement of social security. Based on these critical uncertainties, four distinct scenarios were formulated.
Notwithstanding the extensive scholarly dissection of worn-out and dysfunctional urban fabrics across diverse dimensions by various researchers, the existing academic and practical landscape is characterized by the fragmentation and episodic nature of interventions aimed at improving the living conditions within these fabrics. Crucially, the absence of a universally consensus-driven model or paradigm leads to significant perplexity among stakeholders regarding the adoption of an appropriate framework. Therefore, the strategic adoption of a regeneration approach grounded in scenario planning and future studies presents methodological and philosophical distinctions, both in apprehending the current role and status of the Mashhad metropolis and in its future-oriented strategic foresight. This critical methodological and perspectival contribution constitutes the novelty of the present research, as it has not been previously executed in other studies, particularly concerning the worn-out fabric of the District 6 of Mashhad.
Discussion and Conclusion
This study was done with the objective of articulating the optimal scenario for the regeneration of the worn-out urban fabric of District 6 of Mashhad through scenario planning. A comprehensive review of diverse documents, scholarly works, theoretical perspectives of leading thinkers, and international experiences in the realm of dysfunctional urban fabrics facilitated the identification of various factors and elements critical to the successful implementation of the regeneration approach. Consequently, key drivers and uncertainties were identified using a Delphi panel comprising expert specialists of the domain. Based on the derived findings, twenty-three factors were adopted as the foundational premises for scenario construction pertaining to the dysfunctional fabric of the studied area. These factors were: the parallel efforts of governing institutions, migration of foreign people, social institutions, the efficiency of regulatory bodies, economic activities, social cohesion, social cooperation, social
security, institutional components of civic participation, the establishment of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) related to urban regeneration, the removal of legal impediments concerning NGOs, citizen participation in urban regeneration projects, financial and credit crises, stakeholder interaction and participation, management and planning modalities, fiscal policies and incentives, economic empowerment, social empowerment, the capacity building of human and intellectual capital, private sector empowerment, modern electronic infrastructure, environmental and infrastructural capacities within the district, and the unregulated expansion of the district's dysfunctional fabric.
The empirical findings indicated that five major factors have a pivotal and fundamental role in the regeneration of the fabric of this district: the modality of urban planning and management, the migration of foreign nationals, the participation of actors in urban decisions (social cohesion and cooperation), social security, and the development of the dysfunctional fabric. Employing the scenario-writing technique, these elements were described and presented within a framework of opposing uncertainty spectrums. Based on the two critical, contrasting states inherent in the two dominant uncertainties, four scenarios were formulated for the future regeneration of the dysfunctional fabric of District 6.
Each formulated scenario articulates the nature of the changes that would occur within the key drivers should a specific future state materialize, thereby projecting the likely trajectory of the sustainable regeneration process for the dysfunctional fabric of District 6. Ultimately, the attainment of an optimized and desirable scenario is contingent upon establishing the necessary preconditions and infrastructure for mobilizing the participation of stakeholders and influential actors in the regeneration process. This requires institutionalizing and developing a local network, including members of local social councils and community-based volunteer groups, and ensuring their robust reinforcement.
Furthermore, to decrease and even prevent the unregulated physical expansion of the legal boundaries of District 6, an infill development approach should be strategically deployed for urban organization. This would include using vacant and abandoned lots, derelict or condemned buildings, and similar sites for the provision of essential urban services.
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