امروزه نگاه متفاوت به آینده باعث شده که انسان هوشمند به دنبال یافتن آینده نباشد، بلکه با بهرهگیری از ابزارهای گوناگون آینده مطلوب خود را بسازد. از سوی دیگر الگوی جدید اسکان بشر، مناطق کلانشهری، بهواسطۀ ویژگیها و پیچیدگیهای چندوجهی، شرایطی ایجاد نموده که عمدتاً معایب اینگونه از سکونتگاهها بر محاسن آن پیشی میگیرد. پژوهش حاضر با بهرهگیری از تکنیک تحلیل اثرات متقاطع که یکی از روشهای متداول و مورد پذیرش آیندهنگاری است، با استفاده از نرمافزار میکمک به تحلیل مؤلفههای توسعۀ کلانشهر کرج پرداخته است. بدین منظور ابتدا 37 مؤلفه از میان اسناد فرادست استخراج شده و با استفاده از روش دلفی مدیران، ماتریس اثرات متقاطع مؤلفهها تشکیل گردیده است. سپس با استفاده از میانگینگیری 15 ماتریس بهدستآمده، ماتریس نهایی تشکیل شده و از طریق نرمافزار میکمک نسبت به تحلیل آن اقدام شده است. بر اساس نتایج مدل، کلانشهر کرج سیستمی ناپایدار بوده و «ساماندهی محورهای ویژه گردشگری با استفاده از کیفیتهای محیطی و کریدورهای دید و منظر» و تا حدودی «توسعۀ مجموعههای کارکردی مختلط پیرامون ایستگاههای مترو و قطار شهری» بهعنوان عوامل تنظیمکننده عمل مینمایند. هیچکدام از مؤلفههای توسعۀ کرج از نگاه مدیران، بهعنوان عامل هدف قابل تعریف نمیباشد. این مسئله نشانگر چندجانبه بودن مسئلۀ توسعۀ کلانشهر کرج از نگاه مدیران است. «توسعۀ زیرساختهای الکترونیک شهری» و «ایمنسازی شهر در مقابل حوادث غیرمترقبه» در وضعیت بسیار نزدیک به محور مخاطره (ریسک) قرار دارند. «توسعۀ صنعت گردشگری» و «توسعۀ درونی (میانافزا) شهر» بیشترین میزان تأثیرگذاری بر فرآیند توسعۀ کلانشهر کرج را خواهند داشت.
عنوان مقاله [English]
Identification and Analysis of the Effective Key Factors on Urban Development Using Foresight Approach A Case Study of Karaj Metropolitan Area
At the beginning of the 3rd millennium, future studies (foresight) have been involved in the discovery, innovation and assessment of possible, probable and desirable futures as well as analyzing past procedures; such an approach is the objective evidence of what Gaston Berger has stated about the future, that is “see the future and disrupt its framework” (Godet, 2006, p. 2). Stable planning based on scenario design with the foresight approach has been the major focus of future development planning in countries willing to achieve fundamental developments (Tadbir, 2007).
The growth in competition among metropolitans in national and transnational levels, increase of limitations regarding natural resources, manpower, and financial capacities, along with declining of power as to pay for problems as well as the intensification of complexities and uncertainties concerning the development and management systems in metropolitan areas are a set of realities that metropolitans face nowadays. Methods of designing developmental policies based on insights and understanding the future threats and opportunities require skill and foresight. A foresight concerning the development of metropolitan areas as a systematic process is a form of collaboration to shape long-term perspectives. In fact, through establishing connections as well as providing organization among entities, foresight is a process that helps planners to design suitable plans with developmental purposes.
In the area of urban and regional development, using foresight in facing the future has become one of the inseparable components of planning processes. The conventional strategic planning processes during the past few decades have been mostly focusing on reducing uncertainties, and paying attention to the values and configurations of systems as to decrease the complexities and facilitate performances. Most of such insufficiencies have emerged due to the absence of predictions regarding future certainties, lack of focus on technological impacts and advances, neglecting exterritorial development procedures, the effects of global competitions on planning components or inadvertencies toward the driving forces of development and key factors affecting future development challenges. Lack of identification and involvement of key forces influencing metropolitan development have resulted in gradual weakening of such factors which in the end, has led to the omission of development processes or impacting them adversely. Therefore, through focusing on an extensive range of future consequences by employing collaborative, discursive approaches in the planning area, the foresight approach emphasizes on finding main factors along with the propellants of development; in this manner, uncertainties in planning processes can be taken into account and through gaining authority as to control and manage what is yet to come, a desirable future can be built.
Karaj metropolitan area as a supplement to Tehran is the case being studied in the present research, which occupies a special position within the territory of Tehran metropolitan area and involves cultural and ethnic diversities, particular capacities in areas such as transportation, agriculture, tourism, natural resources, human capital, etc. as well as potential threats such as security concerns, environmental issues, etc.
On one hand, Karaj metropolitan area is the junction of pathways among thirteen provinces in the country; on the other hand, through the existence of very high natural capabilities, it is also known as the central city garden of Iran. Being located adjacent to the Capital as well as its position concerning regional development processes along with the overflow of immigrants, have caused Karaj metropolitan area to act as the supplement to the Capital. Moreover, the speed of environmental, political, administrative, financial, social and cultural developments in Karaj metropolitan area is very significant to the extent to which employing an expansionist (against growth), futuristic approach is deemed necessary more than ever.
Through the cross-impact analysis method as a recognized approach to do foresight as well as using the MicMac software, the present study is an attempt to analyze various components of development in Karaj metropolitan area. In this regard, 37 major components have been extracted from powerful documents. Then, these components have been adjusted in cross-impact matrices using the Delphi method of management. Using the averaging method among 15 designed matrices, the resulting final matrix has been analyzed through MicMac software.
According to the results extracted from the employed model, the urban system of Karaj has been found to be unstable; furthermore, “the organization of special aspects in tourism using environmental qualities and aesthetic corridors” as well as “the development of complex functional sets around metro stations” to some extent, act as regulating factors. Regulating factors can be the main motivation as to move towards achieving a sustainable system.
The interesting point regarding the obtained analysis is that through authorities’ perspective, none of the developmental components of Karaj can be defined as the objective; such an issue implies the multilateral nature of urban development in Karaj, from the view of authorities.
According to the outputs of the model, due to lack of complete compliance on diagonal axis, none of the factors belong to the risk factor group unconditionally; yet the two factors of “developing urban electronic infrastructure” and “providing safety against unexpected accidents” have been very close to the diagonal axis of the chart (risk axis). Furthermore, due to their closeness to the diagonal axis of the chart, factors such as “organization and improvement of distressed and historical areas of the city”, “fair distribution of urban services”, “development of suburban transportation network”, “empowerment of non-government organizations along with cultural and ethnic ties”, and “development of cultural and religious centers throughout the city” can be extended and transformed to risk factors.
Factors including “greenhouse improvement”, “development of cultural, educational and academic centers”, “expansion of science and technology parks”, “enlargement and optimization of urban transportation networks”, “changing the combination of activities in favor of commercial actions throughout the city”, “development of innovative and technological infrastructures of industry” and “preparation for increasing social, financial, cultural and political participation of citizens in the development procedures of the city” have been considered among independent factors.
Finally, the outputs of the software show that “the development of tourism industry” and “internal urban development” would have the utmost impacts on the development process of Karaj city.
Due to immense developments in a limited period of time, the city of Karaj is faced with a set of consequences in which many obstacles and problems lie in the way of the city’s development. According to expert and background analysis as well as implicit studies, one may also infer the fact that the said system would be an unstable one.
According to a tacit, contextual understanding of scholars which is confirmed by the results of the study, factors such as “organization and improvement of distressed and historical areas of the city”, “fair distribution of urban services”, and “development of suburban transportation network” are the main factors regarding the risk position in the city of Karaj.
In this regard, “the industry of supportive services in agriculture” as one of the most important components of secondary leverage can be used as a development motivator. According to the views of urban managers, absence of a purpose factor within the analysis of cross-impact pattern indicates the fact that none of the developmental factors of Karaj is currently capable of being transformed into a function with development purposes.