Study the Effect of Longevity on House Price in Iran (with an Emphasis on the Life Cycle Hypothesis)

Document Type : Scientific-Research

Authors

• roya aleemran ¹
• seyed ali aleemran ²

¹ islamic azad university of iran

² university of tabriz

https://doi.org/10.22067/jgusd.2025.83270.1326

Abstract

The increasing longevity is one of the reasons for the aging population around the world. Therefore, it is necessary to study it’s economic effects. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to study the effect of longevity on house price in Iran with an emphasis on the life cycle hypothesis (LCH) during the first quarter of 2001 to fourth quarter of 2021 by using Johansen-Juselius method. The research results indicate that, longevity has a significant positive impact on house price and also, life cycle hypothesis (LCH) is confirmed. given the significant positive impact of longevity on house price, it is recommended that policy makers, along with increasing economic welfare and increasing longevity, adjust the policies of the housing supply side in such a way as to avoid increasing housing prices in the market. The increasing longevity is one of the reasons for the aging population around the world. Therefore, it is necessary to study it’s economic effects. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to study the effect of longevity on house price in Iran with an emphasis on the life cycle hypothesis (LCH) during the first quarter of 2001 to fourth quarter of 2021 by using Johansen-Juselius method. The research results indicate that, longevity has a significant positive impact on house price and also, life cycle hypothesis (LCH) is confirmed. given the significant positive impact of longevity on house price, it is recommended that policy makers, along with increasing economic welfare and increasing longevity, adjust the policies of the housing supply side in such a way as to avoid increasing housing prices in the market.

Keywords

• Longevity

References

1. 1. افلاطونی، ع. (1396). تجزیه و تحلیل آماری با Eviews در تحقیقات حسابداری و مدیریت مالی. چاپ سوم، تهران: انتشارات ترمه.
2. پورمحمدی، م.ر. (1394). برنامه‌ریزی مسکن. تهران: انتشارات سمت، ویراست دوم.
3. عسگری، ح.ا. و الماسی، ا. (1390). بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر قیمت مسکن در مناطق شهری کشور به روش داده‌های تابلویی (طی سال‌های 1370 تا 1385). پژوهشنامه‌ی اقتصادی، 11(2)، 224-201.
4. قلیچ‌خانی، ن.، یزدانفر، س.ع.، حسینی، س.ب. و نوروزیان ملکی، س. (1398). روابط مولفه‌های اثرگذار بر قیمت مسکن و مولفه‌های کیفیت فضایی مسکن. مدیریت شهری و روستایی، 18(54)، 62-45.
5. هزارجریبی، ج. و امامی غفاری، ز. (1398). بررسی تحولات سیاست‌گذاری رفاهی مسکن در ایران (1358-1392). برنامه‌ریزی رفاه و توسعه‌ی اجتماعی، 10(38)، 119-75.
6. هوشمند، م. و فهیمی دوآب، ر. (1389). تخمین رابطه بلندمدت قیمت حقیقی نفت خام و ارزش واقعی دلار آمریکا. اقتصاد پولی، مالی، 17(30)، 134-98.
7. Ando, A., & Modigliani, F. (1963). The “life cycle” hypothesis of saving: aggregate implications and tests. The American Economic Review, 53(1), 55-84.
8. Eichholtz, P., & Lindenthal, T. (2014). Demographics, human capital, and the demand for housing. Journal of Housing Economics, 26, 19-32.
9. Engelhardt, G.V., & Poterba, J.M. (1991). House prices and demographic change: Canadian evidence. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 21(4), 539-546.
10. Essafi, Y., & Simon, A. (2015). Housing market and demography, evidence from French panel data. European Real Estate Society, 107-133.
11. Green, R., & Hendershott, P.H. (1996). Age, housing demand, and real house prices. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 26(5), 465-480.
12. Heo, Y.J. (2018). Population aging and housing prices: who are we calling old?. NBP Working Paper No. 288. Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department, 1-51.
13. Hiller, N., & Lerbs, O.W. (2016). Aging and urban house prices. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 60, 276-291.
14. Mankiw, N.G., & Weil, D.N. (1989). The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 19(2), 235-258.
15. Modigliani, F., & Brumberg, R. (1954). Utility analysis and the consumption function: an interpretation of cross-section data. In: Kurihara, K.K. (Ed.), Post-Keynesian Economics. Rutgers University Press, New Brunswick, 388-436.
16. Sun, T., Chand, S., & Sharpe, K. (2019). Effect of an increase in longevity on housing prices: evidence from a panel data. MPRA, 92629. 1-10.
17. Takats, E. (2012). Aging and house prices. Journal of Housing Economics, 21(2),131-141.