بررسی تأثیر طول عمر بر قیمت مسکن در ایران (با تأکید بر فرضیه چرخه زندگی)

نوع مقاله : علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• رویا آل عمران ¹
• سیدعلی آل عمران ²

¹ گروه اقتصاد، واحد تبریز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تبریز، ایران، نویسنده مسئول

² استادیار اقتصاد، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران

https://doi.org/10.22067/jgusd.2025.83270.1326

چکیده

افزایش طول عمر یکی از دلایل سالخوردگی جمعیت در سراسر جهان است، از این‌رو نیاز است تا اثرات اقتصادی آن مورد بررسی قرار گیرد. بر این اساس، هدف پژوهش حاضر بررسی تأثیر طول عمر بر قیمت مسکن در ایران با تأکید بر فرضیه‌ی چرخه‌ی زندگی (LCH) در فاصله‌ی زمانی فصل اول سال 1380 تا فصل چهارم سال 1400 با استفاده از روش هم‌انباشتگی جوهانسن- جوسیلیوس است. نتایج حاصل از پژوهش حاکی از آن است که طول عمر تأثیر مثبت و معنی‌دار بر قیمت مسکن داشته و هم‌چنین فرضیه‌ی چرخه‌ی زندگی (LCH) مورد تأیید قرار می‌گیرد. از این‌رو با توجه به تأثیر مثبت طول عمر بر قیمت مسکن پیشنهاد می‌شود که سیاست‌گذاران اقتصادی در کنار افزایش رفاه اقتصادی و بالا رفتن طول عمر، سیاست‌های سمت عرضه‌ی مسکن را چنان تنظیم نمایند که مانع افزایش قیمت مسکن در بازار شوند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• طول عمر
• فرضیه‌ی چرخه‌ی زندگی (LCH)
• قیمت مسکن

عنوان مقاله [English]

An Investigation into the Impact of Lifespan on the Housing Prices in Iran (With an Emphasis on the Life-Cycle Hypothesis)

نویسندگان [English]

• roya aleemran ¹
• seyed ali aleemran ²

¹ islamic azad university of iran

² university of tabriz

چکیده [English]

Extended Abstract

Introduction

The global increase of lifespan is considered a primary driver of population aging over the globe, thereby necessitates an examination of its corresponding economic implications. Moreover, the impact of housing price fluctuations on macro-economic variables influences household welfare, given the substantial proportion of housing expenses of families’ budgets. Moreover, since the effective containment of housing price volatility presupposes an exact knowledge of its determinants, investigation into the principal factors affecting the housing prices is necessary. Consequently, in light of the paramount importance of housing prices, and relying on extensive prior research about the influence of Lifespan on housing prices, this research was done with the aim of examining the impact of lifespan on the prices of houses in Iran. This study tried to see the impact of the influence of Lifespan on housing prices in Iran. The hypothesis was that Lifespan exerts a positive impact on housing prices in Iran.
 

Method

This applied study employed a causal-analytical approach. The data collection was done using library resources. The data on the utilized variables were taken from the Time Series Economic Database of the Central Bank of Iran, the Statistical Centre of Iran, and the World Development Indicators (WDI). The econometric software for the analysis was EViews 10. The time span of this research was from the beginning of 1380 (spring of 2001) to the end of 1400 (end of winter 2022), and the spatial domain was Iran. This study used the Johansen-Juselius Multivariate Cointegration Technique to investigate 
the impact of Lifespan on housing prices in Iran. Moreover, the Life-cycle Hypothesis was used as the theoretical framework for analytical interpretation.

Results

The Augmented Dickey-Fuller test was used for testing the reliability of the variables. The results of this test showed that the research variables are reliable. Moreover, since that the data of this study are based on seasons, the Hegy test was used to assess variable reliability. The outcomes of this test showed the presence of a unit root at the zero frequency or, a non-seasonal unit root in the variables. The results of the Johansen–Juselius Multivariate Cointegration Technique showed that Lifespan has a positive and statistically significant impact on housing prices, confirming  the life-cycle hypothesis.
 

Discussion and Conclusion

The Life-cycle Hypothesis (LCH) was utilized as the theoretical framework for analyzing the influence of lifespan on housing prices. According to the LCH, housing demand is typically low during childhood, increases when people enter into the labor market (size or population effect), reaches its peaks during family formation and maintenance, and subsequently declines during the retirement phase (age effect). According to this theory, people tend to invest in different assets over their working years (active employment) which they can later change to supplement their retirement income. Consequently, they are usually initial buyers and subsequent sellers of housing. The LCH states that if the ratio of the working population to retirees remains constant, housing supply and demand remain stable, but if this ratio changes, housing prices will change. When lifespan increases, the retirees require additional financial resources. Moreover, the working population is incentivized to save more due to the prospect of a longer lifespan. Since housing as a capital asset is considered a suitable means for future savings, the demand for housing among workers increases, leading to a rise in housing prices. On the contrary, retirees would increase the supply of housing by liquidating their housing assets, which may result in a decrease in housing prices. Therefore, the net positive or negative impact of lifespan on housing prices is dependent upon which of these two effects is dominant. The findings showed that lifespan exerts a positive and statistically significant impact on housing prices, thereby validating the fundamental premise of the Life-cycle Hypothesis in the Iranian context. Given the positive impact of lifespan on housing prices, it is recommended that economic policymakers, through considering current and projected mortality and fertility trends in the future, which are expected to feature a decline in population growth and the share of the working-age population, incorporate issues related to age, employment, and retirement into their housing policies and programs. This would be vital for fulfilling the needs related to housing that emerge of demographic shifts. Evaluating the effects of lifespan, employment, and retirement through savings behaviors, investment decisions, and labor market choices can enable the government to anticipate the behavior of different age groups and understand the impact of the two factors under study on housing supply and demand.
Considering the results, the following recommendations are made 
1) The law and the government should take a transformative approach to housing policies and take into account demographic and economic considerations;
 2) In addition to governmental investments in the construction and provision of houses for various age groups and the offering of age appropriate financing facilities, the private sector should be encouraged and supported to be active in constructing and supplying housing projects with the ultimate goal of fulfilling future housing needs for the employed and unhoused people.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Lifespan
• Life Cycle Hypothesis
• Housing Prices

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